When there are winners, there have to be losers, even in a rapidly expanding market such as this.  Nokia, the once titan of the category, that robbed market share from the inventors of cellular telephony (Motorola), although still #1 are now falling like a rock.  Palm, who arguably  added the “smart” aspect of smart phones by creating the PIM (personal information manager) elements now ubiquitous, recently bought by HP are now defunct and their legacy, sadly, may follow.  Research in Motion, RIM, makers of the ubiquitous executive gadget of Christmas Past are down to a meager 3% and declining.  While Google and Apple, who dominate the mobile Operating System market share see no end in sight.

Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility (MMI) brings to the table the largest patent dowry available:  17000 granted patents plus more than 7000 in process, including some unimaginable radio and communication intellectual property.  This not only gives Google the ability to counter the myriad of lawsuits that make analysts weary of the future of Android, but can actually put them in the driver seat if they weren’t there already.  Unfortunately there are always downsides to every upside.  In this case its in the form of a Taiwanese and 2 Korean companies.  Yes, you guessed it: HTC, Samsung, and LG.  These 3 plus Motorola Mobility are the main adopters of Android and responsible for Google’s rise to the top OS in this category.  Together they represent roughly 25% of the market or about the size of Apple’s iOS.

The question is, my loyal reader (singular), will they pick up their marbles and go home (with a layover in Redmond, Wa)? or will they trust Google to keep MMI running independently?  Yeah right!  Just like other things in life, some win, and some lose.  The ones that win by just waiting it out, Microsoft have a  real chance to become the third horse in the race.  Mainly because they will be the only remaining independent.  But with $53B burning their balance sheet, how long can they afford to stay that way?

Enjoy.

This is the deal:  Microsoft has not been able to do anything good in the mobile world even after pouring millions (if not billions) of dollars.  And Nokia, once the giant to follow in the cellphone industry did not see the modern smartphones come.  Together, well, in this blogger’s humble opinion, is no better.  Nokia’s hardware, as good as it is, is just that: hardware.  They have never been able to stand out as a software supplier, areas where both Google, and Apple, the 2 leading forces in the smartphone world, excel at.

On the other hand, Microsoft has not been able to cut the cord.  Still the number one player, by far, in fixed applications, has just been a disaster in the mobile world.  Windows Mobile, arguably one of the first “smartphone” OS’s out there, did not evolve.  And Windows Phone 7, a great approach, is a classic case of “too little, too late”.  While Balmer, Microsoft’s CEO, brags about the eight thousand apps in WP7′s marketplace it remains at least an order of magnitude below iOS or Android.  Carrier’s have dozens of smartphones in their lineup already with access to these apps and users preference, either by cult or anti-cult.  NokiaSoft (or MicroNokia) will have to do the equivalent of pushing a herd of elephants up Mount Everest, one by one, without a sherpa, oxygen, and very little food.

In a letter to Nokia’s associates, Stephen Elop, Nokia’s CEO explained the transition his company will make to dump all activities on Symbian OS in order to adopt WP7 as its main smartphone OS.  I find interesting he used the analogy of a “burning platform” and how people do desperate things in desperate moments.  Kudos for admitting the desperate times and comparing a partnership with Microsoft to “jumping into the icy Atlantic”.  Although it may seem a bit too much, it is more like jumping into the icy Atlantic, naked, in the middle of the night, and picking up drowning friends, with luggage, on the way down.

Granted, these are both outstanding companies with a history of innovation and impressive comebacks (remember Netscape?).  But to pull this one off will require oodles of money, several miracles, outstanding negotiating with the carriers, and great, great products.  They’ve both done it in the past, but will they do it again?  But, given where they both are in this multibillion dollar market, do they really have a choice?  Maybe not.

So good luck in your marriage, hope you both keep your maiden names.  And please do not argue about naming the kids, hire professionals  instead.  Neither of you have a good track record there …

Enjoy.

Anyway, Android is now adding true multitask capabilities, a better than ever PND (personal navigation device) performance – with accessories and all – as well as a notification panel that keeps you in control of what you want to be notified about, when, and how. Personalization – which is really tough to do on the iPhone – is what’s new! Of course most contenders will catch up with features, but one has to analyze the cultures behind each device to understand what’s really the key and what markets they will appeal to.

Apple, of course is the “I control everything” culture. I have the best designers in the world, and I have apps, music, and all, so the end-to-end experience is Applesque all the time. Things usually work seamlessly well and when problems arise, they usually get fixed before the people get unrest. I call that the Emperor culture.

RIM, on the other hand is also end-to-end, but it is clearly a messaging centric company. Email is their roots and will never compromise the ability to input text the way God intended it, with a real keypad feel. Its OS is solid, secure, light, and simple to use. A true “Executive” style culture.

Nokia is a mass marketer. A phone for every liking is their strength. How can they have 50% market share otherwise? They have keyboards, touch screens, small, big, medium all colors, etc. This is a bit confusing for power users and it does limit their ability to have a comprehensive set of apps that can cover all those phones. They are a true mass pleaser and not too enthusiastic with the powers; a socialist if you will.

Microsoft, well, what can we say about our friends from Redmond? Are you a PC? then you know what i mean. There are probably more applications written and running for Windows Mobile than any other OS out there (the majority of them are quite nichy – for warehouses, UPS drivers, etc.), since a big number of developers is familiar with the .net framework and the mobile version called Compact Framework (CF) is similar enough in style. When more than one app is running at the same time they tend to step on each other. Unfortunately, most don’t work well, the OS has to be rebooted a couple of times a week, and it takes forever to start, especially if you have lots of apps. True Anarchy!

Android is different because Google is different. Each manufacturer that uses Android will have the ability to tailor the phones to their brand and service provider. Google will provide some common elements and APIs to minimize chaos. They will manage the app store which in a way will help apps run across products in a slightly more organized fashion. Of course, not every device will be perfect, but they will all live in harmony. Users will perceive commonalities giving them the “Googlesque” identity but each with its own personality. Just like a democracy.

Of course, Democracies have prevailed throughout the course of history and some lucky monarchies have survived if nothing else for the amusement of the tourists.

Enjoy.